Global orange juice (65 brix) production for 2020/21 is forecast 17% higher than the previous year to 1.8 million tonnes. Production in Brazil and Mexico is expected to more than offsets the drop in the US. However, global production continues in a general long-term decline. Similarly, consumption is projected to continue its long-term decline, although exports are forecast to rise this year with the rebound from Mexico.
Brazil production is forecast to rise 20% to 1.2 million tonnes on an increase in oranges available for processing. Consumption and stocks are both higher while exports are forecast to remain unchanged. Brazil remains the largest producer and is expected to account for 75% of global orange juice exports.
US production is forecast to fall 16% to 250 000 tonnes due to a drop in available oranges for processing. Consumption and stocks are expected to be lower, in spite of higher imports.
Mexico production is projected to more than double to 200 000 tonnes after last year’s drought-decimated orange crop. Consumption and exports are expected to climb, keeping stocks unchanged.
EU production is projected up slightly to 88 000 tonnes. Consumption is up slightly – higher production is predicted to more than offset lower imports. Brazil remains the top supplier to the EU.
FLORIDA ORANGE CROP FORECAST (DOWN)
The USDA’s current forecast on Florida’s 2020/21 orange crop is 55.5 million boxes, down
0.5 million boxes from the previous forecast. If realized, this would be 18% lower than last season’s final production.
The forecast for non-Valencia production has been raised by 0.5 million boxes to 22.5 million boxes. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is 600 000 boxes.
The forecast of Valencia production has been lowered by 1.0 million boxes from the previous report to 33.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above the maximum at harvest.
BRAZIL ORANGE JUICE PRODUCTION AND STOCKS (STABLE/DOWN)
Production of oranges in São Paulo and the Minas Gerais triangle in the 2019/20 season will reach 269.01 million boxes (40.8kg), according to Fundecitrus.
The estimated volume of oranges used for processing for the 2019/20 season is 215.64 million boxes, of which 198.01 million boxes processed by CitrusBR members.
CitrusBR estimates that the total consumption of oranges on the domestic and export fresh markets will be 53.40 million boxes. The average juice yield is estimated to be 263.70 boxes per tonne of FCOJ.
Considering the above data, total orange juice production during the 2020/21 season will be 817 744 tonnes (FCOJ 66 brix equivalent). This is 32% lower than production during the previous season.
CitrusBR says global inventories of FCOJ equivalent in the hands of CitrusBR members are estimated to be at 272 979 tonnes on 30 June 2021. If confirmed, this projection will represent a 42% decrease on the 471 138 tonnes on 30 June 2020.
BRAZIL 2020/21 ORANGE CROP FORECAST (STABLE)
The 2020/21 orange crop forecast update for São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro/ Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt is 269.01 million boxes (40.8kg). This figure is almost on par with the previous forecast, but corresponds to a decrease of 6.52% in relation to the initial forecast and 30.45% lower than the previous season.
Fundecitrus say that the crop withstood the physiological effects of a negative biennial bearing. This crop loss, unprecedented in the history of citriculture, evidences the severity of climatic issues in this season. Production losses due to orange trees that died from the drought have not yet been included. The number of dead trees and fruit unharvested is being determined by a sample survey encompassing 5% of plots distributed throughout the citrus belt. The reduction in production caused by this atypical tree mortality will be presented on the final crop estimate of 12 April 2021.
FLORIDA GRAPEFRUIT FORECAST (STABLE)
The USDA forecast for Florida’s 2020/21 grapefruit crop remains at 4.6 million boxes.
The red grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 3.90 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is similarly held at 700 000 boxes. The fruit size and fruit drop are now final.
The final size for white grapefruit is below average, while red grapefruit size is above average. Droppage for both varieties is above average.