All eyes are on the drought in Brazil which has resulted in forecasts for the current orange crop being adjusted lower. This could lead to stock levels of orange juice being drawn down to critical levels by the start of next season in June 2022.
BRAZILIAN 2021/22 ORANGE PRODUCTION <DOWN>
A new forecast from Fundecitrus for orange production in 2021/22 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt is 267.87 million boxes (40.8kg each), a marked difference from the initial forecast 294.17 million boxes estimated in May this year. The reduction of 26.30 million boxes is due to very poor rainfall leading to the most severe water crisis to hit Brazil for the past 91 years. The combination of this drought and successive frosts in July culminated in a gradual crop decline. Oranges are excessively small and fruit droppage rates are very high.
This season was meant to be a high production year, but the above factors mean production is likely to return to the same levels from season of 268.63 million boxes
This forecast will be updated again on 10 December, but Fundecitrus does not expect any increases if the current conditions persist.
As mentioned, the drought was acerbated by frosts that particularly affected plots located in lower regions and regions located in the south, southwest and central sectors. In isolated cases, the frosts caused some of the younger trees to die.
The harvest pace remains slow due to late and sporadic flowering last year. The field survey data shows that harvest was 27% complete by mid-August, which historically should already be about 35% complete.
BRAZILIAN ORANGE JUICE STOCKS <DOWN>
Global inventories of Brazilian orange juice (66 brix FCOJ equivalent) in the hands of CitrusBR members on 30 June 2021 were 316 929 tonnes. This represents a 33% reduction on the 471 138 tonnes at the same time last year.
BRAZILIAN ORANGE JUICE EXPORTS <UP>
Brazilian exports of orange juice (FCOJ equivalent) seem to be recovering from the decreases last season. In July 2021 Brazil exported 87 500 tonnes, 54% more than was shipped in the same period last year (Source: Secex). Revenue from these shipments increased by 66% totalling USD133.2 million.
However, with limited production expected in Brazil, shipments are not forecast to increase much during the 2021/22 season.
FLORIDA – ORANGE PRODUCTION <DOWN>
An unofficial forecast on production from the forthcoming 2021/22 orange harvest in Florida has been released. Elizabeth Steger, president of Citrus Consulting International, has forecast Florida’s forthcoming crop at 52.0 million boxes, 1.5% lower than the 52.8 million boxes the state produced last season.
Steger projected 20.8 million boxes of early-midseason oranges (22.7 million boxes last season) and 31.2 million boxes of Valencia’s (30.1 million boxes last season).
She estimated early/mid-season oranges and Valencia’s will yield 1.09 and 1.03 boxes per tree, respectively.
While Steger’s forecast is pegged 52 million boxes of oranges, the report says there are various scenarios in which the state’s orange crop could range from 49-56 million boxes.
The first official forecast on the 2021/22 crop in Florida will released by the USDA in early October.
EUROPEAN UNION – PEACH AND NECTARINE PRODUCTION <DOWN>
In 2021/22 European Union (EU) production of peaches and nectarines is forecast to 2.67 million tonnes a decline of 16.6% compared with the previous year. This drop is expected in most of the major EU producing countries due to unfavourable weather conditions during spring and a continuous decrease in area planted.
EUROPEAN UNION – CHERRY PRODUCTION <DOWN>
Total EU cherry production in 2021/22 is projected to decline 5.3% to 664 800 tonnes due to a decline in the major producing countries. Unfavourable weather conditions with frost and heavy rainstorms during the spring season account for the drop in production.
CHILE – CHERRY PRODUCTION <UP>
Cherry production in Chile in 2021/22 is projected to increase to 397 000 tonnes from 386 000 tonnes the year before. This is the result of an increase in planted area, as well as maturation of young orchards.
CHILE – PEACH AND NECTARINE PRODUCTION <DOWN>
Fresh peach and nectarine production for 2021/22 in Chile is forecast at 158 000 tonnes, a 0.6% decrease over the previous year. A drop in productivity due to drought was offset by a relatively steady planted area.
TURKEY – CHERRY PRODUCTION <DOWN>
The cherry production forecast in Turkey in 2021/22 is 860 000 tonnes, which is 54 000 tonnes less than during the 2020/21 season, due to frost damage that occurred in Izmir and Konya in the late spring.
TURKEY – PEACH AND NECTARINE PRODUCTION <DOWN>
Peach and nectarine production in Turkey for 2021/22 is forecast at 830 000 tonnes, 60 000 tonnes lower than in 2020/21. The lower supply is attributed to frost damage in the late spring.