Trade Data

  • 15 Sep
    CROP ROUND UP Sept 2021

    CROP ROUND UP Sept 2021

     

    All eyes are on the drought in Brazil which has resulted in forecasts for the current orange crop being adjusted lower. This could lead to stock levels of orange juice being drawn down to critical levels by the start of next season in June 2022.

    BRAZILIAN 2021/22 ORANGE PRODUCTION <DOWN>

    A new forecast from Fundecitrus for orange production in 2021/22 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt is 267.87 million boxes (40.8kg each), a marked difference from the initial forecast 294.17 million boxes estimated in May this year. The reduction of 26.30 million boxes is due to very poor rainfall leading to the most severe water crisis to hit Brazil for the past 91 years. The combination of this drought and successive frosts in July culminated in a gradual crop decline. Oranges are excessively small and fruit droppage rates are very high.

    This season was meant to be a high production year, but the above factors mean production is likely to return to the same levels from season of 268.63 million boxes

    This forecast will be updated again on 10 December, but Fundecitrus does not expect any increases if the current conditions persist.

    As mentioned, the drought was acerbated by frosts that particularly affected plots located in lower regions and regions located in the south, southwest and central sectors. In isolated cases, the frosts caused some of the younger trees to die.

    The harvest pace remains slow due to late and sporadic flowering last year. The field survey data shows that harvest was 27% complete by mid-August, which historically should already be about 35% complete.

    Fundecitrus

     

    BRAZILIAN ORANGE JUICE STOCKS <DOWN>

    Global inventories of Brazilian orange juice (66 brix FCOJ equivalent) in the hands of CitrusBR members on 30 June 2021 were 316 929 tonnes. This represents a 33% reduction on the 471 138 tonnes at the same time last year.

     

    CitrusBR

     

    BRAZILIAN ORANGE JUICE EXPORTS <UP>

    Brazilian exports of orange juice (FCOJ equivalent) seem to be recovering from the decreases last season. In July 2021 Brazil exported 87 500 tonnes, 54% more than was shipped in the same period last year (Source: Secex). Revenue from these shipments increased by 66% totalling USD133.2 million.

    However, with limited production expected in Brazil, shipments are not forecast to increase much during the 2021/22 season.

    Cepea

     

    FLORIDA – ORANGE PRODUCTION <DOWN>

    An unofficial forecast on production from the forthcoming 2021/22 orange harvest in Florida has been released. Elizabeth Steger, president of Citrus Consulting International, has forecast Florida’s forthcoming crop at 52.0 million boxes, 1.5% lower than the 52.8 million boxes the state produced last season.

    Steger projected 20.8 million boxes of early-midseason oranges (22.7 million boxes last season) and 31.2 million boxes of Valencia’s (30.1 million boxes last season).

    She estimated early/mid-season oranges and Valencia’s will yield 1.09 and 1.03 boxes per tree, respectively.

    While Steger’s forecast is pegged 52 million boxes of oranges, the report says there are various scenarios in which the state’s orange crop could range from 49-56 million boxes.

    The first official forecast on the 2021/22 crop in Florida will released by the USDA in early October.

    Elizabeth Steger

     

    EUROPEAN UNION – PEACH AND NECTARINE PRODUCTION <DOWN>

    In 2021/22 European Union (EU) production of peaches and nectarines is forecast to 2.67 million tonnes a decline of 16.6% compared with the previous year. This drop is expected in most of the major EU producing countries due to unfavourable weather conditions during spring and a continuous decrease in area planted.

    USDA

     

    EUROPEAN UNION – CHERRY PRODUCTION <DOWN>

    Total EU cherry production in 2021/22 is projected to decline 5.3% to 664 800 tonnes due to a decline in the major producing countries. Unfavourable weather conditions with frost and heavy rainstorms during the spring season account for the drop in production.

    USDA

     

    CHILE – CHERRY PRODUCTION <UP>

    Cherry production in Chile in 2021/22 is projected to increase to 397 000 tonnes from 386 000 tonnes the year before. This is the result of an increase in planted area, as well as maturation of young orchards.

    USDA

     

    CHILE – PEACH AND NECTARINE PRODUCTION <DOWN>

    Fresh peach and nectarine production for 2021/22 in Chile is forecast at 158 000 tonnes, a 0.6% decrease over the previous year. A drop in productivity due to drought was offset by a relatively steady planted area.

    USDA

     

    TURKEY – CHERRY PRODUCTION <DOWN>

    The cherry production forecast in Turkey in 2021/22 is 860 000 tonnes, which is 54 000 tonnes less than during the 2020/21 season, due to frost damage that occurred in Izmir and Konya in the late spring.

    USDA

     

    TURKEY – PEACH AND NECTARINE PRODUCTION <DOWN>

    Peach and nectarine production in Turkey for 2021/22 is forecast at 830 000 tonnes, 60 000 tonnes lower than in 2020/21. The lower supply is attributed to frost damage in the late spring.

    USDA

     

    By Caroline Calder Trade Data
  • 19 Jul
    Crop round-up July/Aug 2021

    Crop round-up July/Aug 2021

    While orange production is up in regions such as Brazil, Florida, South Africa, Morocco and the EU, analysts say there are minor concerns about whether the global supply of orange juice will be sufficient to meet demand in the first half of 2022.

    FLORIDA – ORANGE PRODUCTION <UP>

    The USDA’s final forecast on Florida’s 2020/21 orange crop is 52.8 million boxes. The total is comprised of 22.7 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties), unchanged from the June forecast, and 30.1 million boxes of Valencia oranges, up slightly from the June forecast. USDA

     

     

    SOUTH AFRICA – ORANGE AND ORANGE JUICE PRODUCTION <UP>

    The production of oranges in South Africa is estimated to increase by 2% to 1.65 million tonnes in 2020/21, from 1.62 million tonnes the year before. The USDA projects that 285 000 tonnes of oranges will be processed in 2020/21, against 282 000 tonnes the year before.

    The production of orange juice is estimated to increase by 1% to 50 000 tonnes in 2020/21, from 49 494 tonnes in 2019/20.

    Concentrated orange juice accounts for at least 90% of the total orange juice produced in South Africa. The South African citrus industry prioritizes the export of fresh citrus, and only processes the fruit that does not meet export standards.

    The USDA estimates that exports of orange juice in 2020/21 will increase significantly to 40 000 tonnes, from 29 549 tonnes the year before. USDA

     

    TURKEY – ORANGE PRODUCTION <DOWN>

    In 2020/21, orange production in Turkey is estimated to decrease to 1.3 million tonnes, which is 23% lower than in 2019/20 (1.7 million tonnes), due to excessive hot weather conditions in May 2020 during the blooming period.

    Volumes for processing are also projected to decline in 2020/21, but to a lesser degree, to 105 000 tonnes from 110 000 tonnes the year before. USDA

     

    MOROCCO – ORANGE AND ORANGE JUICE PRODUCTION <UP>

    Orange production in 2020/21 in Morocco is forecast at 1.10 million tonnes, against 806 000 tonnes the year before. The USDA expects the volume of oranges for processing to reach 50 000 tonnes, compared with 35 000 tonnes in 2019/20. This will equate to 5 000 tonnes of orange juice (65 brix equivalent) in 2020/21, against 3 500 tonnes the year before. USDA

     

    CHILE – APPLE PRODUCTION <DOWN>

    Commercial apple production in Chile in 2021 is expected to fall to 1.095 million tonnes 5% lower than the 1.115 million tonnes produced the previous year. USDA

     

    NEW ZEALAND – APPLE PRODUCTION <DOWN>

    Total apple production in New Zealand for 2020/21 is forecast at 543 000 tonnes, 8% lower than the year before. USDA

     

    FLORIDA – GRAPEFRUIT PRODUCTION <STABLE>

    The USDA’S forecast for Florida grapefruit production is unchanged at 4.10 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 620 000 boxes are white and 3.48 million boxes are the red varieties. USDA

     

    SOUTH AFRICA – GRAPEFRUIT PRODUCTION <UP>

    The production of grapefruit in South Africa is estimated to increase by 8% to 373 000 tonnes in 2020/21, from 344 626 tonnes the previous year.

    On average, 29% of total grapefruit produced is used for processing. The USDA estimates that the volume of grapefruit delivered for processing will increase by 12% to 105 000 tonnes in 2020/21, from 94 000 tonnes the year before. Grapefruit is processed to juice and concentrate, the majority of which is exported to Europe. USDA

     

    ARGENTINA – LEMON PRODUCTION <DOWN>

    Lemon production in 2021 in Argentina is forecast at 1.15 million tonnes, against 1.49 million tonnes in 2020. The same report projected the volume of lemons for processing at 831 000 tonnes, compared with 1.08 million tonnes the year before. USDA

     

    EU – LEMON PRODUCTION <UP>

    EU lemon production in 2020/21 is forecast to increase by almost 12% on the previous year to 1.6 million tonnes. USDA

     

    TURKEY – LEMON PRODUCTION <UP>

    In 2020/21, lemon production in Turkey reached 1.1 million tonnes, which is 13% higher than during the 2019/20 season (950 000 tonnes). Lemons earmarked for the processing industry in 2020/21 are expected to remain unchanged on the previous year at 50 000 tonnes. USDA

     

    CHILE – GRAPE PRODUCTION <DOWN>

    Commercial grape production in Chile in 2020/21 is expected to decrease to 615 000 tonnes, 21% lower than the 780 000 tonnes produced the previous year. USDA

     

    CHINA – PEACH, NECTARINE AND CHERRY PRODUCTION <UP>

    China’s peach and nectarine production is estimated at 16 million tonnes in 2021 (Jan-Dec), an increase of nearly 7% from the previous year.

    Cherry production is forecast at 600 000 tonnes in 2021/22 (Apr 2021-Mar 2022), an increase of 15% from 2020/21. USDA

     

     

     

     

    By Caroline Calder Trade Data
  • 14 Mar
    GLOBAL ORANGE JUICE SUPPLY 2020/21 (UP)

    GLOBAL ORANGE JUICE SUPPLY 2020/21 (UP)

    Global orange juice (65 brix) production for 2020/21 is forecast 17% higher than the previous year to 1.8 million tonnes. Production in Brazil and Mexico is expected to more than offsets the drop in the US. However, global production continues in a general long-term decline. Similarly, consumption is projected to continue its long-term decline, although exports are forecast to rise this year with the rebound from Mexico.

    Brazil production is forecast to rise 20% to 1.2 million tonnes on an increase in oranges available for processing. Consumption and stocks are both higher while exports are forecast to remain unchanged. Brazil remains the largest producer and is expected to account for 75% of global orange juice exports.

    US production is forecast to fall 16% to 250 000 tonnes due to a drop in available oranges for processing. Consumption and stocks are expected to be lower, in spite of higher imports.

    Mexico production is projected to more than double to 200 000 tonnes after last year’s drought-decimated orange crop. Consumption and exports are expected to climb, keeping stocks unchanged.

    EU production is projected up slightly to 88 000 tonnes. Consumption is up slightly – higher production is predicted to more than offset lower imports. Brazil remains the top supplier to the EU.

    USDA

     

     

    FLORIDA ORANGE CROP FORECAST (DOWN)

    The USDA’s current forecast on Florida’s 2020/21 orange crop is 55.5 million boxes, down

    0.5 million boxes from the previous forecast. If realized, this would be 18% lower than last season’s final production.

    The forecast for non-Valencia production has been raised by 0.5 million boxes to 22.5 million boxes. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is 600 000 boxes.

    The forecast of Valencia production has been lowered by 1.0 million boxes from the previous report to 33.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above the maximum at harvest.

    USDA

     

    BRAZIL ORANGE JUICE PRODUCTION AND STOCKS (STABLE/DOWN)

    Production of oranges in São Paulo and the Minas Gerais triangle in the 2019/20 season will reach 269.01 million boxes (40.8kg), according to Fundecitrus.

    The estimated volume of oranges used for processing for the 2019/20 season is 215.64 million boxes, of which 198.01 million boxes processed by CitrusBR members.

    CitrusBR estimates that the total consumption of oranges on the domestic and export fresh markets will be 53.40 million boxes. The average juice yield is estimated to be 263.70 boxes per tonne of FCOJ.

    Considering the above data, total orange juice production during the 2020/21 season will be 817 744 tonnes (FCOJ 66 brix equivalent). This is 32% lower than production during the previous season.

    CitrusBR says global inventories of FCOJ equivalent in the hands of CitrusBR members are estimated to be at 272 979 tonnes on 30 June 2021. If confirmed, this projection will represent a 42% decrease on the 471 138 tonnes on 30 June 2020.

    CItrusBR

     

     

    BRAZIL 2020/21 ORANGE CROP FORECAST (STABLE)

    The 2020/21 orange crop forecast update for São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro/ Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt is 269.01 million boxes (40.8kg). This figure is almost on par with the previous forecast, but corresponds to a decrease of 6.52% in relation to the initial forecast and 30.45% lower than the previous season.

    Fundecitrus say that the crop withstood the physiological effects of a negative biennial bearing. This crop loss, unprecedented in the history of citriculture, evidences the severity of climatic issues in this season. Production losses due to orange trees that died from the drought have not yet been included. The number of dead trees and fruit unharvested is being determined by a sample survey encompassing 5% of plots distributed throughout the citrus belt. The reduction in production caused by this atypical tree mortality will be presented on the final crop estimate of 12 April 2021.

    Fundecitrus

     

    FLORIDA GRAPEFRUIT FORECAST (STABLE)

    The USDA forecast for Florida’s 2020/21 grapefruit crop remains at 4.6 million boxes.

    The red grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 3.90 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is similarly held at 700 000 boxes. The fruit size and fruit drop are now final.

    The final size for white grapefruit is below average, while red grapefruit size is above average. Droppage for both varieties is above average.

    USDA

     

    By Caroline Calder Trade Data
  • 18 Jan
    Brazil – Orange crop forecast and juice production 2021/22

    Brazil – Orange crop forecast and juice production 2021/22

    CROP ROUND-UP

     

    Global output of oranges could be looking slightly more positive for this year in many regions. However, the bounce back for Brazilian output does not look as strong as the industry had hoped.

     

    BRAZIL’S 2020/21 ORANGE CROP 

    The Fundecitrus 2020/21 orange crop forecast update for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt in Brazil is 269.36 million boxes, 17.36 million boxes lower than the previous projection in September of 286.72 million boxes and 18.40 million boxes below the initial forecast.

    Production has significantly hindered by late rainfall in the Brazilian spring coupled with intense heat. Should this new projection be realised, it will result in the largest crop loss for the citrus belt since the beginning of the historical series in 1988/89 and a downturn of 30.36% in comparison to the previous crop.

    Fundecitrus

     BRAZILIAN ORANGE AND ORANGE JUICE PRODUCTION 2021/22 (UP)

    The commercial area in the state of Sao Paulo and the western part of Minas Gerais should contribute 315 million boxes (12.85 million tonnes) in the forthcoming 2021/22 season, an increase of 17% relative to the revised figure for current 2020/21 season (269.4 million boxes or 10.99 million tonnes).

    The lack of rainfall and high temperatures during September-October 2020 prevented the first blossoming in several citrus growing regions, is expected to reduce the full potential for the 2021/22 citrus output. However, the second blossoming occurred in October and November and benefited from the rainfall content and moderate temperatures. Production from other states is projected stable at 100 million boxes (4.08 million tonnes), similar to the 2020/21 season. Nevertheless, the USDA says it is still too early to project total orange production for the 2020/21 season and more accurate numbers will be available during the first quarter of 2021.

    Orange juice

    Total Brazilian FCOJ (65 brix equivalent) production for 2021/22 is estimated at 1.157 million tonnes, an increase of 192 000 tonnes compared with output the previous season.

    The Sao Paulo industry is expected to process 275 million boxes for orange juice production (190 million boxes for FCOJ and 85 million boxes for NFC production), accounting for 1.061 million tonnes of juice (730 000 tonnes of FCOJ and 331 000 tonnes of NFC converted to FCOJ equivalent). Other producing states should deliver 24 million boxes, accounting for 96 000 tonnes of juice.

    Total Brazilian FCOJ (65 brix equivalent) production for 2020/21 has been revised downward to 965 000 tonnes. The USDA projects total Brazilian FCOJ exports for 2021/22 at 1.08 million tonnes, unchanged from 2020/21.

    Stocks

    Ending stocks for the 2020/21 crop are forecast at 136 000 tonnes (65 brix), compared with carryover stocks of 134 000 tonnes in 2019/20. The USDA stock figures only include stocks in the storage tanks of orange juice facilities (processing plants and port terminals) in Brazil. They do not include stocks owned by Brazilian companies abroad, e.g. in transit and port terminals in the US, Europe and Japan.

    According to CitrusBR, global Brazilian orange juice inventories were at 471 138 tonnes (FCOJ equivalent) on 30 June 2020. This includes orange juice in storage tanks at processing plants and port terminals in Brazil and stocks abroad (vessels and port facilities worldwide).

     

    By Caroline Calder Trade Data
1 2 3 4 6