• 14 Mar


    Global orange juice (65 brix) production for 2020/21 is forecast 17% higher than the previous year to 1.8 million tonnes. Production in Brazil and Mexico is expected to more than offsets the drop in the US. However, global production continues in a general long-term decline. Similarly, consumption is projected to continue its long-term decline, although exports are forecast to rise this year with the rebound from Mexico.

    Brazil production is forecast to rise 20% to 1.2 million tonnes on an increase in oranges available for processing. Consumption and stocks are both higher while exports are forecast to remain unchanged. Brazil remains the largest producer and is expected to account for 75% of global orange juice exports.

    US production is forecast to fall 16% to 250 000 tonnes due to a drop in available oranges for processing. Consumption and stocks are expected to be lower, in spite of higher imports.

    Mexico production is projected to more than double to 200 000 tonnes after last year’s drought-decimated orange crop. Consumption and exports are expected to climb, keeping stocks unchanged.

    EU production is projected up slightly to 88 000 tonnes. Consumption is up slightly – higher production is predicted to more than offset lower imports. Brazil remains the top supplier to the EU.





    The USDA’s current forecast on Florida’s 2020/21 orange crop is 55.5 million boxes, down

    0.5 million boxes from the previous forecast. If realized, this would be 18% lower than last season’s final production.

    The forecast for non-Valencia production has been raised by 0.5 million boxes to 22.5 million boxes. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is 600 000 boxes.

    The forecast of Valencia production has been lowered by 1.0 million boxes from the previous report to 33.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above the maximum at harvest.




    Production of oranges in São Paulo and the Minas Gerais triangle in the 2019/20 season will reach 269.01 million boxes (40.8kg), according to Fundecitrus.

    The estimated volume of oranges used for processing for the 2019/20 season is 215.64 million boxes, of which 198.01 million boxes processed by CitrusBR members.

    CitrusBR estimates that the total consumption of oranges on the domestic and export fresh markets will be 53.40 million boxes. The average juice yield is estimated to be 263.70 boxes per tonne of FCOJ.

    Considering the above data, total orange juice production during the 2020/21 season will be 817 744 tonnes (FCOJ 66 brix equivalent). This is 32% lower than production during the previous season.

    CitrusBR says global inventories of FCOJ equivalent in the hands of CitrusBR members are estimated to be at 272 979 tonnes on 30 June 2021. If confirmed, this projection will represent a 42% decrease on the 471 138 tonnes on 30 June 2020.





    The 2020/21 orange crop forecast update for São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro/ Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt is 269.01 million boxes (40.8kg). This figure is almost on par with the previous forecast, but corresponds to a decrease of 6.52% in relation to the initial forecast and 30.45% lower than the previous season.

    Fundecitrus say that the crop withstood the physiological effects of a negative biennial bearing. This crop loss, unprecedented in the history of citriculture, evidences the severity of climatic issues in this season. Production losses due to orange trees that died from the drought have not yet been included. The number of dead trees and fruit unharvested is being determined by a sample survey encompassing 5% of plots distributed throughout the citrus belt. The reduction in production caused by this atypical tree mortality will be presented on the final crop estimate of 12 April 2021.




    The USDA forecast for Florida’s 2020/21 grapefruit crop remains at 4.6 million boxes.

    The red grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 3.90 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is similarly held at 700 000 boxes. The fruit size and fruit drop are now final.

    The final size for white grapefruit is below average, while red grapefruit size is above average. Droppage for both varieties is above average.



    By Caroline Calder Trade Data
  • 10 Mar
    FCOJ update – May 2021

    FCOJ update – May 2021

    FCOJ futures were lower over the last few months and are now threatening to make new contract lows.  There were no problems noted with the Winter weather as freezes stayed well away from Florida.  Some freezes were noted in Texas and northern Mexico, but it did not get cold enough for long enough to seriously hurt production in these areas.  Now the weather is warmer but some areas in Texas and Mexico still need precipitation.  California has also been dry but growers have access to irrigation for the crops in the state.

    An abnormally cold air mass moved into the Great Plains and as far south as southern Mexico a few months ago.  The headlines featured the loss of infrastructure in Texas, but the cold could have injured crops.  Most affected would be the crops in southern Texas and northeastern Mexico.  It was cold enough to damage flowers in these areas and some of the foliage as well, but probably not cold enough for long enough to affect the trees.  Ideas are that the area affected by cold might have lost a little production.  These areas have also been dry so the flowers have been delayed and the production losses might not be that much.  Western Mexico and into California have also been dry.  Central and southern Mexico and Sao Paulo state in Brazil are all in good condition, although it remains dry in Sao Paulo.  Trees are not showing stress yet in Sao Paulo but might if the dry conditions continue.  That will affect the international market more than the US market for now.

    Demand is starting to shift away from FCOJ as people in the US get vaccines in arms.  Consumption from food operations is down a lot as no one is dining out very much.  Consumption at home is fading.  There are hopes that people can finally start to venture out a bit more and maybe even go to restaurants.  It’s an exciting prospect to many consumers who have been mostly locked at home for months.  The hope is that people will start to consume more FCOJ away from home and in the restaurants.  The big hope is that consumers will continue to consume more juice even with the end of the pandemic, but this is not guaranteed and is currently not the case as demand overall has been weaker.  Most likely there will be some who stay drinking juice, but many more who stop juice and drink other things or take pills for their vitamins and minerals.



    Florida weather has remained mostly good for crops.  Most areas have seen enough rain for good tree and fruit growth.  Total fruit production on the trees is less this year so there will be less production.  The next major weather event is coming and is the hurricane season.  Ideas are that the Atlantic season could be more active this year and this might be the next chance for a major rally in prices.  A big storm could hit the state and hurt the trees.  Fruit could drop from the trees too, but that will mostly affect fresh consumption.  The dropped fruit usually is collected and sent to processors, so a rally becomes counter intuitive in FCOJ.  A big hurricane often means more production of FCOJ even with less oranges due to the fruit drop scenario.  So, any rally caused byu a storm can be short lived as the rally will allow the processors favorable prices for hedging and the processors will take the good price.  That means that futures can spike higher, but almost immediately work back lower to absord the potentially increased FCOJ production at the expense of fresh consumption.

    By Caroline Calder Features
  • 09 Mar
    Wellness – Feeding the mind

    Wellness – Feeding the mind


    New consumer research from Kerry reveals that mind-body beverage benefits will drive consumer demand

    New consumer research carried out by Kerry, the world’s leading taste and nutrition company, reveals that 65% of functional beverage consumers are more worried about their health since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The whitepaper, Understanding Consumer Drivers in Beverages, examines the key health priorities that will drive the functional beverage market with 2,662 beverage consumers across the UK, Germany, Poland and Spain surveyed as part of the research. When asked about the health concerns that have become more important since the emergence of COVID-19, 59% of respondents cited immunity while 50% said mental health is now a priority. The research has also indicated that consumers prefer beverages with natural ingredients however, there is a high level of acceptance for fortification with 39% of Europeans now placing more importance on fortification when it comes to their health.

    “We believe that the functional beverage category will gain traction as lifestyle consumers tune into an expected surge in new product launches with many targeting more holistic attitudes towards health, diet and lifestyle,” says Breda Kelly, Kerry’s Nutritional Beverage Lead for Europe and Russia.

    “Our consumer research shows that there is a growing demand for products that address a broad spectrum of health concerns, but in particular immunity and mental health support. While immune health is top of mind at the moment and is the most important health concern since the onset of the pandemic, younger age groups are worried about body-mind wellness and their mental health, meaning that there is an opportunity to create products to address these concerns.”

    Increasing consumer demand

    As the market for products with functional and nutritional benefits grows, there is increasing consumer demand for formats that meet the needs of different occasions and deliver ease and convenience of consumption. The research also found that just over half of all Europeans attach equal importance to taste and delivery of the benefit.

    The functional beverage market is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 6.0% through to 2025 as more consumers reach for beverages with added benefits. For manufacturers seeking to innovate in the beverage space, there are opportunities for different offerings such as functionality in hot drinks like tea and hot chocolate.

    “We think the opportunity to create iconic products is still ahead of us. Brands will need to communicate the key benefits of the products while also delivering on taste and texture. Consumers are willing to pay a premium for beverages with a functional benefit and will repurchase if that benefit is proven to work. This means that manufacturers need to use ingredients that are backed by science and trusted by consumers,” adds Breda.

    https://www.kerry.com/europe-en/Explore/Consumer-Drivers-in-Functional-Beverage  to download the whitepaper

    About Kerry

    Kerry, the Taste & Nutrition company, offers solutions that nourish lives all over the world. From humble beginnings as an Irish dairy co-operative, Kerry has grown into a large international food industry leader, with offices in 32 countries, 149 manufacturing facilities and more than 26,000 employees globally, including over 1,000 food scientists. We bring to the table our strong food heritage, coupled with over 40 years of experience, global insights and market knowledge, culinary and applications expertise, as well as a range of unique solutions that anticipate and address our customers’ needs.



    By Caroline Calder Features
  • 09 Mar
    Fruit juice and the fitness industry

    Fruit juice and the fitness industry


    Duncan Lynch, Research Analyst, Zenith Global provides some insights for FJF readers

    Society as a whole is repeatedly being told to consume more fruit and vegetables. According to UK government figures in 2018, only 31% of adults and 8% of teenagers consumed the recommended five portions daily. Fruit juice, therefore, is a convenient way of squeezing in those extra portions.

    However, according to Zenith Global’s globaldrinks.com database, whilst on the whole demand for healthful beverages has been rising over the last five years, the total volume of fruit juice has been in steady decline in both North America and Western Europe with an increase in price propping up revenue totals.

    One might have thought that juice and physical fitness should go hand in hand, but amongst the fitness industry and fitness professionals, fruit juice has a mixed reputation and has done for several years.

    This, in part, has been driven by the health concerns surrounding fruit juice. Juices have a relatively high sugar content and calorific value. Even natural juices that boast the popular tagline ‘no added sugar’ contain a high amount of naturally occurring sugars. A pint of orange juice contains more calories than the equivalent volume of lemonade or lager. Another factor is the comparative lack of nutrients compared to fresh fruit.

    Despite the most common criticisms from the fitness industry, it has helped to drive innovation, allowing juice to play a role in helping people achieve their goals in muscle gain or fat loss. The fresh juice and smoothie bar industry grew nearly 7% between 2015 and 2018, driven by the rapid rise in the appearance of such outlets in close proximity to or within gyms and leisure centres. Whilst this growth in a more health-conscious society is likely to be dampened by Covid restrictions, Zenith Global expects to see these long-term trends of growth and popularity continuing amongst fresh juice.

    This increased demand comes, in part, from the variety and control it gives consumers. The fitness industry encourages consumers to track what they eat and drink and fresh juicing gives them greater control over their choices. They are also able to add protein powders, creatine and other supplements to tailor the juice to their individual needs. Furthermore, the concerns over the loss of nutrients in pre-packaged products are somewhat alleviated as the whole fruit is normally blended.

    Trying to compete with the juice and smoothie bar market, there has been an increase in the number of pre-packaged functional juices, promising enhanced performance with added vitamins and minerals from products such as chia and flax seeds. With the global functional beverage market expected to grow by more than 8% in 2021, one of the market leaders, Tropicana, relaunched its functional juice range in 2020. The brand now better highlights its benefits to consumers who want to live a healthy lifestyle. Whilst consumers lose some of the control compared to freshly made juices, they still gain many of the benefits with increased convenience.

    Consumers are also interested in trying new and innovative products, especially those which are reported to improve athletic performance. Tart cherry juice has increased in popularity over the last few years with endurance athletes in particular for this reason. The cherries contain a high concentration of anthocyanins renowned for their anti-inflammatory properties, but they are also shown to reduce muscle damage and fatigue and improve brain function, with sales forecast to increase further to 2025.

    Vegetable juices have long been overlooked for their taste but within the fitness industry especially they are increasing in popularity due to their high levels of minerals and vitamins and lower sugar levels. With improvements in technology and flavour profiles, the taste has been improved for many consumers. This is often achieved by mixing vegetables with a relatively small amount of sweet fruit juice, such as apple.

    Beetroot juice is one of the leaders within vegetable juices with the market expected to achieve small volume growth by 2025. Beetroot juice is packed with dietary nitrates which reduce the oxygen expended during exercise. Shots of rhubarb juice are being used by athletes to offer the same benefits as beetroot juice but removes the need for sweeteners.

    Zenith Global acknowledges the important role fruit juice still has to play in the fitness industry, but demands are changing. The increase in the popularity of vegetable juices and functional fruit juices and smoothies looks likely to continue. The products being used and promoted by elite athletes are likely to make their way into the mainstream market over the next few years as consumers try to improve their health and fitness, especially in the post-lockdown world we hope to be living in soon.



    By Caroline Calder Features
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