News

17th September 2018

Citrus – world markets and trade

Oranges

Global orange production for 2017/18 is forecast to tumble 6.0 million metric tons (tonnes) from the previous year to 47.8 million as unfavourable weather leads to smaller crops in Brazil and the United States. Similarly, fruit for processing is expected to fall, with orange juice production forecast down nearly 25% to 1.6 million tonnes (65 degrees brix) on the production slide in Brazil and the United States. Fresh exports are relatively unchanged while lower supplies are expected to affect processing oranges.

US production is estimated to fall 24% to 3.5 million tonnes as unfavourable weather and citrus greening disease continue to cause fruit to drop in Florida before it is ripe. Exports, consumption, and fruit for processing are all lower with the smaller crop.

Brazil’s production is forecast to fall 23% to 16.0

million tonnes as unfavourable weather resulted in poor bloom and fruit set. Fresh orange consumption is up 173,000 tonnes while oranges for processing are down 5.0 million tonnes to 11.1 million. With the drop in oranges for processing, orange juice production is forecast to fall to 1.0 million tonnes (65 degrees brix).

Production in the European Union is estimated down 5% to 6.4 million tonnes on lower area and drought conditions. Imports (which are more than triple exports) are up 10% while oranges for processing and fresh consumption are both down on lower supplies.

Egypt’s production is estimated at a record 3.2 million tonnes, up 6% from last year on higher area. Exports are up 5% to a record 1.6 million tonnes on greater exportable supplies. Egypt accounts for one-third of global orange exports.

South Africa’s production is expected to rise 8% to 1.5 million tonnes. Exports are forecast at a record 1.2 million tonnes and account for 25% of global trade. The European Union remains the top market accounting for over 40% of South African orange exports.

Production in Turkey is forecast at a record 1.9 million tonnes due to favourable weather. Exports are also at a record on greater available supplies and high demand in Iraq and Russia.

Mexico’s production is projected down slightly, which is expected to lower fruit used for processing and consumption.

Morocco’s production is forecast only slightly lower at 1.0 million tonnes on favourable weather following early season drought. Exports and consumption are also forecast relatively flat on the minimal change in exportable supplies.

China’s production is projected up 300,000 tonnes to 7.3 million as a result of favourable weather and yields. Consumption is up on higher domestic supplies and robust import demand for high- quality and counter-seasonal fruit. South Africa and Egypt are the top two suppliers, accounting for 60% of imports

Orange Juice

Global orange juice production for 2017/18 is forecast down 24% to 1.6 million tonnes (65 degrees brix) as Brazil and US production plunges on fewer oranges for processing.

Consumption, exports, and stocks are expected to fall as Brazilian and US supplies, combined, fall to near 2015/16 levels.

US production is expected down 98,000 tonnes to 205,000 as a result of fewer oranges for processing. Imports are forecast up 37% to 410,000 tonnes with Brazil and Mexico expected to supply over 90% of orange juice imports. The jump in imports offsets the drop in production, builds stocks, and tempers consumptions downward trend.

Brazil’s production is expected to tumble nearly 30% to 1.0 million tonnes on fewer oranges for processing. As the largest producer, Brazil accounts for over three-quarters of global orange juice exports, but with the drop in production, both exports and stocks are forecast down.

Production in the European Union is projected down 8% to 107,000 tonnes

reduced oranges for processing due to lower area, high temperatures, and lack of rain. Consumption continues to slide as imports are also down. Even with declining consumption, the EU still remains the top orange juice consumer.

Lemons/Limes

Global production in 2017/18 is forecast up slightly to a record 7.7 million tonnes. Higher production in Argentina and Mexico is expected to more than offsets declines in Turkey. Global exports are forecast up slightly to a new record with record trade from Mexico, Turkey, and South Africa. Fruit used for processing is up slightly.

Orange Juice: Production, Supply and Distribution in Selected Countries

(1,000 Metric Tons at 65 Degrees Brix)

 

 

2013/14

 

2014/15

 

2015/16

 

2016/17

Jan 2017/18 Jul 2017/18
Production            
Brazil 1,230 1,006 859 1,447 1,152 1,032
United States 476 425 361 303 215 205
Mexico 126 159 166 171 171 171
European Union 114 97 100 116 102 107
China 55 50 46 45 44 44
South Africa 48 55 21 19 26 30
Turkey 9 8 9 9 9 9
Other 25 31 13 16 15 16
Total 2,084 1,830 1,574 2,125 1,733 1,614
Domestic Consumption            
European Union 799 937 826 741 717 717
United States 700 663 631 579 510 568
China 111 99 83 97 96 96
Canada 94 87 93 86 82 84
Japan 68 80 78 72 70 70
Brazil 35 35 38 38 40 40
Australia 40 40 40 38 38 38
Other 112 100 90 83 81 78
Total 1,960 2,040 1,879 1,735 1,634 1,692
Ending Stocks            
United States 347 358 302 270 260 285
Brazil 329 147 6 160 60 45
European Union 15 15 15 15 15 15
Japan 11 18 13 12 10 10
Korea, South 1 3 5 5 6 6
Other 30 32 13 4 5 4
Total 733 572 353 466 357 365
Exports            
Brazil 1,200 1,153 962 1,255 1,137 1,107
Mexico 121 153 158 163 164 164
European Union 57 50 52 63 65 65
United States 113 81 66 57 45 32
South Africa 31 45 35 28 26 29
Other 30 32 32 32 32 30
Total 1,552 1,514 1,305 1,598 1,468 1,427
Imports            
European Union 742 890 778 689 680 675
United States 300 330 280 301 330 410
Canada 98 91 97 90 85 85
Japan 63 86 73 71 68 68
China 57 49 40 55 55 55
Russia 45 38 37 35 35 32
Australia 32 32 32 32 32 32
Other 53 47 54 47 48 48
Total 1,391 1,563 1,391 1,320 1,332 1,404

 

For 2007/08 and after, one metric ton of 65 degrees brix equals 344.8 gallons at 42 degrees brix and 1,392.6 gallons at single strength equivalent. One metric ton of 65 degrees brix equals 344.8 gallons at 42 degrees brix and 1,405.88 gallons at single strength equivalent for 2006/2007 and earlier.

 

Split years refer to the harvest and marketing period, which corresponds roughly to October-September in the Northern Hemisphere.

For the Southern Hemisphere, harvest occurs almost entirely during the second year shown and the harvest and marketing period begins in the second year shown:

South Africa – February through January Australia – April through March

Brazil – July through June

Import and export totals may not equal due in part to different marketing years such as those listed above.

 

By Caroline Whibley Trade Data Share: