USDA data – Brazil – Orange
The commercial area in the state of São Paulo and the western part of Minas Gerais should account for 320 million boxes (13.06 million tonnes), a decrease of 19% compared with 2016/17
Total Brazilian FCOJ production (65 brix equivalent) for 2017/18 is projected at 1.15 million tonnes, a 16% drop compared with the previous year. The São Paulo industry is expected to process 278 million boxes of oranges for orange juice production, 208 million boxes for FCOJ and 70 million boxes for NFC production, accounting for 1.052 million tonnes of juice (780 000 tonnes and 272 000 tonnes of FCOJ and NFC respectively).
Total Brazilian FCOJ exports for 2017/18 are projected at 1.137 million tonnes, a decrease of 9% on the previous year. The São Paulo industry should contribute 1.082 million tonnes.
Inventory levels for 2017/18 are projected at 60 000 tonnes (FCOJ equivalent) down 25 000 tonnes from 2016/17.
USDA stock figures only include juice in the storage tanks of the facilities (processing plants, port terminals etc…) in Brazil. They do not include stocks owned by Brazilian companies abroad, e.g., in transit and port terminals in the US, Europe and Japan.
According to the Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters (CitrusBR), global Brazilian orange juice inventories were 107 387 tonnes (66 Brix) on 30 June 2017, which includes 6 872 tonnes of orange juice in storage tanks (processing plants, port terminals, etc…) in Brazil. CitrusBr projects global orange juice inventories on 30 June 2018 at 207 565 tonnes. CitrusBr global inventories include orange juice in storage tanks at processing plants and port terminals in Brazil and stocks abroad (vessels and port facilities worldwide).
|BRAZIL ORANGE JUICE|
|ORANGE JUICE (65 brix equivalent) Tonnes|
|Beginning stocks||147 000||6 000||85 000|
|Production||859 000||1 372 000||1 152 000|
|Exports||962 000||1 255 000||1 137 000|
|Dom. consumption||35 000||38 000||40 000|
|Ending stocks||6 000||85 000||60 000|
|Total distribution||1 006 000||1 378 000||1 237 000|
USDA data – Poland – Apple
Poland’s 2017/18 apple crop is estimated at 2.8 million tonnes, a 20% decrease from last year.
The USDA estimates that Polish processors will use 1.4 million tonnes of fresh domestically grown apples in 2017/18, a decline from 1.8 million tonnes in 2016/17. Almost 50% of domestic apples are processed, mostly into concentrated apple juice. Except for apple juice concentrate, Polish processing capacity remains relatively low.
Poland is the EU’s largest producer and exporter of apple juice and apple juice concentrate (AJC). In 2016/17, production reached 300 000 tonnes. The smaller crop in 2017/18 is expected to lead to a 27% decrease in AJC production from the previous year. Output will depend on the quality of apples on the market in the second half of 2017/18 (July to June marketing year).
The USDA forecasts that the export opportunities for Polish apple processors in 2017/18 are lower. Higher input costs will increase apple juice prices and this is coupled with strong competition from China. AJC exports in 2017/18 are expected to reach 224 000 tonnes, a 20% decline from the year before. In 2016/17 Poland exported 279 000 tonnes of AJC. The main export destinations are Germany and other EU member states. The main non-EU export markets are the US and Russia.
Exports of AJC to the US and Russia in 2017/18 are expected to decline due to strong price competition from China. In 2016/17 Poland exported 12 000 tonnes of AJC to the US and the same amount was shipped to Russia.
In recent years, Poland has imported small amounts of AJC from other countries, mostly from the Ukraine and Moldova to blend with local supplies. In 2016/17, Poland imported 54 000 tonnes of AJC. According to industry sources, imported Chinese AJC would be able to compensate for the domestic supply shortages in 2017/18.
|POLAND – apple juice 2017/18 (USDA)|
|Apples for fresh domestic market||650,000||700,000||600,000|
|Apples for processing||1,397,780||1,751,400||1,416,900|
|Apple concentrate production||305,000||300,000||220000**|
|** Including imported AJC mixed with apple juice produced from locally grown apples|
|Poland – Apple concentrate exports (year ending June)|
|(Tonnes) Commodity code 200979||2014/15||2015/16||2016/17|
USDA data – Europe – Orange
Total EU orange production in 2017/18 is expected to fall 7.7% to 6.2 million tonnes, of which 1.3 million will go for processing, says the USDA. Spanish orange production is predicted to fall 11% to 3.2 million tonnes.
EU orange juice production is forecast to fall 11% to 102 000 tonnes.
EU orange juice imports in 2016/17 were 682 000 tonnes, of which 90% were from Brazil.
USDA data – China – Orange
2017/18 orange production is forecast at 7.3 million tonnes, up 4% from the previous year due to favourable weather and a diminished impact from citrus greening.
Orange juice production in 2017/18 (October-September) is forecast at 43 800 tonnes, down slightly from the 2016/17 estimate of 44 500 tonnes. Industry reports that consumer demand for ‘not from concentrate’ (NFC) juice is growing and Chinese processors can now sell high-quality NFC juice at over twice the price of ‘from concentrate’ (FC) juice. Industry contacts also report that production of FC juice continues to slowly decline as consumer demand weakens. Major Chinese orange juice processors are located in Chongqing and Sichuan provinces.
Orange juice domestic consumption is forecast at 96 200 tonnes, almost unchanged from the 2016/17 estimate. The USDA has increased consumption estimates by more than 30% due to reports from retailers that while demand for FC juice remains weak, consumption of NFC juice was unexpectedly strong, especially in top-tier cities as cold-chain infrastructure, marketing efforts and disposable incomes expand.
Orange juice imports in 2017/18 are projected at 55 000 tonnes, unchanged on the previous year. Based on Chinese Customs data, 2016/17 import estimations were increased significantly due to unexpectedly strong import demand from Chinese processors opting to import ingredients for juicing as opposed to utilizing domestic oranges which have increased in price. Orange juice exports in 2017/18 are forecast at 2 600 tonnes
USDA data – South Africa – Orange
The production of oranges in the 2017/18 is forecast to increase by 2% to 1.43 million tonnes, from 1.40 million tonnes in 2016/17.
The production of orange juice is forecast to increase by 18% to 26 000 tonnes in 2017/18, from 22 000 tonnes in 2016/17. This is due to the increase in the quantity of fresh oranges delivered for processing and the higher juice extraction achieved as a result of the better quality of oranges.
The domestic consumption of orange juice is forecast to increase by 3% to 6 400 tonnes in 2017/18, from 6 200 tonnes in 2016/17, based on the increase in production and supply availability. The relatively high food price inflation has resulted in restricted growth in the domestic consumption of fresh fruit juices especially the one hundred percent fruit juice, and the shift in demand to orange juice concentrates.
Exports of orange juice in 2017/18 will increase by about 6% to 25 500 tonnes, from 24 000 tonnes in the 2016/17, based on the available supply and increase in production.
Producers in South Africa prefer to export fresh oranges rather than to sell to processors as export prices are eight times higher than prices achieved from processors. Netherlands, Botswana, Mozambique, Mauritius, Zambia and Zimbabwe are the biggest markets for South African orange juice exports.
USDA data – Australia – Orange
Production of fresh oranges is forecast at 480 000 tonnes in 2017/18, the same as the previous year, assuming average seasonal conditions.
The USDA forecasts 60 000 tonnes of fresh oranges will be processed into juice for 2017/18. Total orange juice production is forecast to remain at 7 000 tonnes in 2017/18.
In 2017, the national shortage of Navel oranges for fresh juice production led a number of processors to import orange juice concentrate for mixing with available fresh juice. Some processors used labels on juice bottles to advise consumers on the use of concentrate. In mid-2018, Australia will introduce stricter country-of-origin labelling to all products, which will make it mandatory to label fruit juice made from either local or imported juice.
Growers have traditionally entered into 3-year contracts with juice processors for juice supplies, although shorter term contracts have been more common in recent years. Lower domestic prices offered by juice processors have encouraged farmers to switch to growing more profitable varieties such as Navel oranges and mandarins; away from Valencia oranges. This trend has resulted in smaller supplies for Valencia oranges, which is now impacting juice processors. In 2017, higher international demand for Valencia oranges has further reduced supplies for processing orange juice.
Orange juice consumption has fallen over the last decade from 49 000 tonnes in 2005/06 to 41 000 tonnes in 2012/13. The USDA expects a further decrease to 38 000 tonnes for 2017/18.
Per capita annual consumption of citrus fruit has declined over the last five years due to competition from other beverages such as iced tea and sports drinks. Health concerns are also driving consumers to move away from drinks with higher sugar content and imported concentrates.
Orange and apple juice are the most popular products on the Australian juice market, but many new competitive products have been introduced such as fruit and vegetable juice combinations, organic juice varieties, cold pressed juice, coconut water, and mixtures with other beverages. Valencia oranges are harvested in winter, but are mainly consumed as juice in the summer, thus, some processors have used six various storage systems for juice, apart from freezing. Juice can be pasteurized and stored juice in 1,000-litre bladders at low temperatures to maintain juice supplies over the year.
Australia exports small quantities of orange juice – exports in 2017/18 are estimated at just 500 tonnes, which was revised down from 600 tonnes in 2016/17. Processors import orange juice and concentrate to meet overall domestic demand.
Imports of orange juice concentrate are expected to remain stable at 31 500 tonnes in 2017/18. Brazil is the main supplier of frozen orange juice concentrate (FCOJ).
USDA data – Morocco – Orange
Morocco’s orange production for 2017/18 at 935 000 tonnes, a decline of 10% over 2016/17.
Orange juice production in 2017/18 at 35,000 tonnes, 43% lower than 2016/17 due to less availability for processing.
Orange juice exports for 2017/17 are expected to be lower at 3 000 tonnes and imports are projected to be higher at 3 100 tonnes. Morocco began exporting volumes of single-strength orange juice in 2016/17 to the Netherlands and France.