Florida Report

Fruitjuicefocus caught up with the team behind the October Citrus Report to find out more about the origins of FASS, the Florida Ag Statistics Service, and what it takes to create such a significant annual report.

The Florida Agricultural Statistics Service (FASS), also referred to as the Florida Field Office of the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is located in Maitland, Florida. It is compiled of 7 office and 11 field full-time state employees. It is the main agricultural data gathering agency in Florida with the purpose of collecting, compiling and publishing current citrus statistics.

Beginnings

The statistical series on Florida citrus began in the late nineteenth century when recorded shipments of citrus and County Commissioner estimates of tree population and production were periodically summarized. Official inspection records later improved the series for both production and tree population.  Joint efforts of state and industry groups provided a tree census in 1934 and again in 1956.

The 1956 census was a significant contribution to the series identifying individual groves by mapping and recording variety, age, location, and tree-numbers.  The 1956 census was updated by annual sample surveys from 1960 until 1965 when a complete and detailed census was efficiently obtained with the aid of aerial photography.

Early forecasting

Early attempts at forecasting citrus production consisted of various ways of gathering and summarizing subjective evaluations of crop condition.  Objective counts and measurements were used in citrus production as early as 1939.  Most of these early systems became unsatisfactory for present day needs but have paved the way to the relatively sophisticated methodology now being used in Florida.

“The first Citrus forecast using objective measurements, which is the methodology we use today, was in 1939.  Prior to that, and as early as 1910’s to 1920’s, forecast were based on visual observation and grower reports,” reports USDA analyst Bill Curtis.

“The format used in 1939 was similar to what is still used today, broken out by variety and type.  At the end of each season, a summarization is done to quantify the most recent years of Florida Citrus. It is put in a book to show comparisons between the most recent season to previous seasons. The book we put out annually covers the most recent 20 seasons, and includes both ‘Citrus Summary’ data and ‘Tree Inventory’ data.”

Present methodology

Present citrus forecasting considers production to be uniquely defined as a function of four variables: 1) number of bearing trees in the population 2) average number of fruit per tree 3) size of fruit at maturity, and 4) natural loss of fruit between original count and maturity (drop).

Today the data are collected by a broad program of sample surveys throughout the year. Survey data are collected primarily through objective and non-objective field work, but also by mail surveys or through contacting growers and farmers in person. This service is provided by a cooperative agreement between the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (FDACS) and the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

The Florida Field Office, like all NASS field offices, submits recommendations to the national headquarters in Washington, DC. Commodity experts review all State recommendations and issue State and National estimates to the public on scheduled release dates throughout the year. Cooperative agreements with State governments permit additional estimates to be made at the State and/or County level for some commodities.

Who are the people behind the report?

“For state employees, each of the full time field employees are exclusively trained to perform their duties. The training is primarily on the job as what we do is uniquely different from what most people have experienced“, says Mr Curtis.

“In the field, all full time employees are Research Assistants with college degrees, or have worked with FASS as seasonal employees at least four years before being hired full time. All of them must be able to accurately perform field surveys. We stress accuracy in counting fruit, estimating trees, and objectively measuring fruit size and drop.

“Understanding basic mathematical concepts is a must. Also, they work independently after being trained, so we try to hire people who are self- starters and can work on their own. They must be willing to get dirty occasionally. One of the surveys is counting fruit on a citrus tree. For that they would have to be able to count fruit by climbing a tree or a ladder, and the trees get grimy at times. “

In the office, mathematical skills and logical skills are a must, says Mr Curtis.  “There are three state Research Assistants with the same requirements who compile the report. The staff assistant people personnel we hire must be able to logically prepare the information for the report.”

A Federal employee Mathematical Statistician is in charge of assuring the information is statistically sound. This staff member runs the statistical information to combine everything into a format that can be put into a report. With several years of data and regressions, edits are run and checked to assure accuracy.

“This is all done under the oversight of the Federal ‘State Statistician’, Mark Hudson, says Curtis, “he reviews everything before it presented to the (ASB) Agricultural Statistics Board.

What are the main aims of the report?

The primary goal of FASS is to provide farmers, ranchers and other producers of agricultural commodities with unbiased and reliable statistical reports to assist them in making production and marketing decisions. Other important users of agricultural statistics are farm organizations, agribusiness and transportation firms, state and national policy makers, and foreign buyers of agricultural products.

Logistics – how is this done? The current citrus acreage, as reported by FASS in the August 28, 2019 Commercial Citrus inventory Report for Florida Citrus is 430,601 acres.

Field staff are located throughout the Florida Citrus region. They perform the survey work on the three major surveys (Limb Count, Size and Drop, and Tree inventory).

“Before 1939, the methodology was different”, says Curtis. “Without going into detail, what has changed since then is how we perform some of our objective surveys. The Limb Count or fruit per tree survey was changed in 1956 to a Cross-sectional Area survey. The development of callipers used to measure the size of the fruit was in the 1950’s. Tree inventory using aerial photography goes back as far as 1966. Probably one of the most recent changes is using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology for photo interpretation and grove change detection in 2005. This was a huge cost savings as we no longer had to hire someone to fly over the states citrus.

“From a personal standpoint, I remember as late as the 1990’s carrying a pager in the field, and when I received a page having to find a phone booth to call back to the office. Obviously cell phones, and computer technology has speed up the process of getting information from the field to the office and vice versa in a more expedient and efficient manner.

“When I came to the office in the early 2000’s, many of the charts we used were done with pen and paper,“ comments Curtis. “Now regressions and historical data in chart format is at our fingertips and can be looked at pretty immediately with the use of computers programs. “

Getting the report out on time.

“It’s not an option being late”, says Mr Curtis. “It is a federal regulation set by USDA policy. The forecast data is conditions as of the first of the month. So, it all comes down to scheduling. Making sure the field staff has completed the work as close to the end of the month as possible, while still giving the office staff time to compile the information for the forecast. The two field supervisors monitor the work of each of their employees to make sure this happens. The office supervisor works with staff to make sure the citrus board is ready to be conducted on time.”

How important is the report to Florida growers?

“Growers, processers, researchers and many other industries use this information. Not just the production forecast, but the value aspect and the tree and acreage data. I can’t speak for them all” comments Curtis, “but there seems to be an interest in what we do to help them make decisions on planting, selling and buying.”

What next for the report? 

“Trying to get out the most accurate report. With the changing industry, the greening, smaller crops in many instances, we strive to get the numbers right. We are open to new technology when it becomes affordable and efficient. There are new methods of counting trees and using drones that to this point have not been used. There may be ways to better do what we do, but until we find them to be statistically sound, we will stick with what we know works.” Concludes Mr Curtis.

Challenges

“Lots of challenges exist. There are of course diseases, and pests. These things change the face the industry, and how affordable it is for the grower. Then there are the natural disasters, such as freezes or hurricanes. The many freezes in the 1980’s moved the crop south. The hurricanes in the 2004-2005 and 2005-2006 reduced the crop size, and now over the past decade, citrus greening. This affects us, because when the crop fluctuates, it is harder to forecast. Also, we have to play catch up on tree numbers and acres if we are not careful. There will always be challenges. “

Safe transportation of truit juices on the high seas

Ziemann Holvrieka show how it equips cargo ship with juice tanks

In order to transport fresh juices and juice concentrates as efficiently as possible, Citrosuco, the largest global producer of orange juice concentrate, relies on tanks and process technology from the plant manufacturer Ziemann Holvrieka. The equipment was installed on the cargo ship MV Citrus Vita Brasil, which is now tailor-made and designed for the transport of juices. 27 million litres of juice can be transported from Santos in Brazil to the United States and Europe in a total of 15 tanks.

In the maritime industry, innovation is often achieved through conversion and this is what happened in the development of MV Citrus Vita Brasil: The container ship MV Hermes Arrow, was converted into a combined juice tanker for not-from-concentrate (NFC) and for concentrate orange juice (FCOJ). Eight tanks are for dedicated solely to NFC and seven double-purpose tanks used for loading NFC and FCOJ. The new juice tanker, which is the length of two football fields, is capable of holding 7 million gallons of juice, equivalent to a capacity of 27,000 m³. The ship was a former container ship without cooling system. The old construction, used for accommodating containers, had to be removed along with the hatch covers. After inserting the new vertical stainless steel tanks into the insulated holds, an additional double bottom and new shelter deck were fitted and a new cooling system was installed.

Perfected Aseptic Tank Engineering

The stainless steel used for the tanks complies with the highest DIN standards. Moreover, the inner surface, meaning the complete inner tank welding, strictly conforms to ASME standards: 0.8 μm R_a and zero indication.

The ship’s cargo tanks are cylindrical units with vertical axes. The bottom of each tank slopes to a definite lower point; while the top is slightly conical. The pipework is connected to the lowest point to facilitate complete draining of the tanks. Propeller-type tank agitators ensure circulation of the tank contents when NFC orange juice is being carried.

Cargo pumps are installed at the bottom of the cargo hold between the cargo tanks. Frequency-controlled, electrically driven centrifugal pumps are used to handle the NFC orange juice, while a wider pipework system and a series of frequency-controlled, electrically driven positive displacement pumps support the FCOJ process. Radar level gauges determine how much product is in the tanks, and nitrogen pipes deliver nitrogen to fill the headspace in the tanks. Temperature sensors are used to monitor the cooling system.

A protective atmosphere of nitrogen is used in all tanks and pipework systems to assure the juice quality. The ship has an on-board nitrogen tank to provide a suitable buffer for maintaining appropriate levels in the tanks and pipework while at sea. Nitrogen is pumped into the tanks from a ship-based source when juice is discharged at the port.

Special diaphragm and sealing solutions are integrated into valves to ensure sterility. Larger valves which cannot be sealed with diaphragms are equipped with valve rod seals fit with alcohol reservoirs to support volume changes and wiping action on exposed sections of the valve. Flanges are designed according to the highest aseptic standards to eliminate cavities where bacteria could form. “This guarantees that the juice is not contaminated by harmful microorganisms”, explains Jurgen Stuijts, International Sales Manager Juice & Beverages at Ziemann Holvrieka.

Customized tank cleaning systems ensure aseptic conditions during cleaning and disinfection of the large tanks. Fresh water for cleaning and rinsing of the tanks is supplied via a separate fresh water tank installed in the forward part of the vessel. After cleaning, the empty tanks are filled with nitrogen to ensure sterility.

Customized Process Technology

All calculations and layouts were approved and released in advance by an independent classification society. This ensures that all components meet the high standards required for transport vessels in the juice industry. Only when a ship meets all specifications at the time of completion, it receives complete certification. Without it is not permitted to sail. Jurgen Stuijts describes the particular challenge posed during installation of the tanks: “Every ship is built differently, so the arrangement of load points varies. The tanks stand on a foundation which must be mounted exactly on these load points. The installation is therefore a tailored solution.”

Electrically driven refrigerant compressors were installed in the deckhouse. Brine from the evaporator room circulates through the heat exchangers in each hold, with large fans providing air to all parts of the insulated holds through strategically placed ductwork. Juice is loaded at the required temperature, and the refrigerating system has the capacity to maintain this temperature, no matter what ambient conditions are encountered during the voyage. The cooling capability of the equipment is 5° C to -10° C. The ship is also equipped with an emergency generator, designed to protect the cargo in the event of a electrical failure.

Additionally, state-of-the-art measuring and control technology, circulation pumps and discharge pumps were installed, along with a nitrogen system to provide a nitrogen gas cushion in the filled tanks above the cargo. A stand-alone CIP system was included in the process installation. A double piping system was installed for the combined transportation of NFC and FC orange juice.

In case of MV Citrus Vita Brasil, an additional request was for a development and construction timeframe of 10 months – and this target was met. 

Reliable support that leads to success

The automation of MV Citrus Vita Brasil is cutting edge to ensure correct processes and the required asepticism. Human error can be eliminated as a result of this automation system. In particular, electronically controlled processes for filling and emptying of the tanks have been improved to ensure the sterility of the end product.

The cargo system of the fruit juice carrier is equipped with clean-in-place and sterilize-in-place installations. Stainless steel pipe manifolds are used on board and on shore during loading and unloading of the ship. Food grade hoses connect the two manifolds. However, the piping manifolds and hoses must be sterilized before the product is pumped through them. Ziemann Holvrieka provides training for the crew to reduce the risk of contamination with microorganisms when sterilization is not realized properly.

Smooth cooperation with a happy ending

“This was a unique project for us. Citrosuco’s experience in ship management combined with our know-how in the construction of special tanks ensures high quality,” explains Jurgen Stuijts. “Citrus Vita Brasil will provide greater transport capacity and greater flexibility in the distribution of orange juice to our customers to meet the demand of different markets,” said Mário Bavaresco Júnior, President of Citrosuco, in a statement.

Visit us at the Juice Summit 2019 at the 1st and 2nd October 2019 in Antwerpen, Belgium.

Johan Cerstiaens, Commercial Director at SVZ provides some insight

From breakfast go-to, to post-gym treat, fruit juice is a staple for millions of consumers globally. As a beverage that is marketed as healthy and natural, it is especially enjoyed by busy consumers who see it as a way to easily consume essential minerals and vitamins. Supermarket aisles reflect this popularity, boasting a broad range of colourful combinations to suit all tastes and preferences: from conventional flavours like orange and apple to blends including red berries, tropical flavours or superfruits.

Are juices too sweet?

In recent years fruit juice has slightly fallen from grace. While many brands have reformulated to remove added sugar, due to the high levels of naturally occurring sweetness in juice, even completely natural drinks have been caught up in the recent ‘sugar backlash’ that has swept the food and drink industry. Fruit juice has therefore presented somewhat of a dilemma for manufacturers and health policy makers, as they try to ensure the reduction of sugar content in drinks, whilst still recognising the health benefits of juice. For example, while both Public Health England and UNESDA, the Union of European Soft Drinks, have included fruit juice as part of their sugar reduction programmes, products which contain 100% fruit juice are currently exempt from the UK’s sugar tax.

Concerns about the sugar content of fruit juice aren’t just coming from regulatory authorities, however. As consumers pay more attention to their health and wellbeing, they are increasingly looking for high-quality, natural drinks which deliver nutritional and even psychological benefits as well as a great taste. This demand for healthy, multi-benefit drinks represents a great opportunity for both juice manufacturers and ingredient suppliers to find innovative new ways to satisfy consumers’ changing needs.

Despite the challenges facing the industry, juice is still immensely popular with younger consumers, with recent research from Kantar finding that 36% of respondents drank juice daily. The appetite for fruit juice is evidently still there, so how can both manufacturers and brands delight consumers while satisfying calls for more variety and less natural sweetness?

Vegetables hold the answer

Amid all the concern about the sugar content of fruit juice, it makes sense for brands to turn to vegetable-based blends. With a more savoury flavour, vegetables have less sugar and calories than fruit, while still being rich in vitamins, minerals and antioxidants. Encouragingly, almost 40% of those surveyed by Kantar felt positive about juices and smoothies containing vegetables. In fact, many consumers have already been exposed to vegetable-based drinks and juices in supermarkets – Cawston Press and Innocent for example, have been selling ‘brilliant beetroot’ and ‘easy greens’ juices respectively for years.

The veg juice trend also extends to the largest industry players. The Coca Cola Company for example have been exploring more savoury flavours with its recently launched 100% vegetable juice Minute Maid range, which features flavours such as tomato, carrot, celery, cucumber and beetroot. In the UK, Morrisons has recently added to its chilled juice range with an orange and carrot blend, whilst cold-pressed ‘raw’ smoothie brand Savsé combine superfruits such as blueberries with beetroot, kale, spinach in their ‘super blue’ drink.

Grown-up tastes

By exploring more savoury flavours – in combination with, or replacing, the sweet – manufacturers are not only cutting back on sugar content. They’re also appealing to consumers with more adventurous palates, who want to push their taste experiences beyond the norm.

Also, with less and less young people drinking alcohol –19% of those in the 16-24 age bracket report they do not drink at all – vegetable-based blends are a soft drink alternative to alcohol that is more suited to grown-up palates.[1] English juice manufacturer Pixley Berries, for example, is specifically catering to this market through a range of blends and flavours including a beetroot and rhubarb juice that is ‘naturally low in sugar’.

The future of juice

With fruit juice still a recommended element of a healthy, balanced diet, it’s undeniable that concerns surrounding sweet drinks are motivating manufacturers to explore more savoury juice flavours. By utilising ingredients such as spinach, celery, beetroot and carrot in their juices, brands will be able to naturally reduce sugar content, while also attracting adventurous consumers and those who are looking for more ‘adult’ soft drink alternatives.

Here at SVZ, our portfolio of premium, sustainably sourced ingredients allows producers to create innovative new flavour combinations to excite their customers. By taking advantage of our high-quality vegetable ingredients for their juices, manufacturers can rest assured that they will not only cut back on sugar content but also provide consumers with the best possible taste.

For further information please contact Dejan Trifunovic

SVZ International BV, email:

dejan.trifunovic@svz.com

Orange Juice futures have been on a bit of a ride over the last few weeks as the hurricane season finally started to get active in the Atlantic Ocean.

The season had been quiet and the new crop Oranges have been developing nicely.  The peak of the hurricane season has brought more action to the weather in the oceans and more price volatility to futures.

Early season growth in Florida was characterized by warm and mostly dry weather.  Producers were forces to use irrigation early this year to keep the trees in good condition and to promote good flowering for the coming crop.  This is coming in the state during the dry season, but the season went a little longer than normal this year.  It was also very warm and that made watering the trees even more important and dry and warm weather can rapidly deplete water resources.  This is especially true in Florida which has sandier soils than most areas.  It is after all a peninsula stuck out into the ocean.  Better rains started to appear about six weeks ago and this meant the water pumps could be turned off as Mother Nature kept the trees in good condition.  USDA has responded to the good growing conditions by keeping production ideas strong for the coming year at well over 70 million boxes for Florida alone.

Now the hurricane season is passing its peak days and the ocean is much more active.  Hurricane Dorian devastated northern Bahamas but largely missed Florida.  More tropical waves are coming off the African coast and could form into hurricanes.  In fact, the hurricane center in Miami has now estimated that one of the waves has a 60% chance of forming into some type of tropical system.  These types of forecasts will keep some speculative buying interest alive in the futures market.  The season will start to gradually wind down over the next couple of months as the Sun moves back south, but there is still plenty of time to get a storm going that could damage crops.

Unfortunately for the buyers, a tropical system rarely does lasting damage.  The one exception was several years ago when the crop size was cut in half due to the strong hurricane.  Most bring winds and rains and the quality of the juice in the oranges might get hurt.  Less acid in the orange means using more oranges to make the juice.  The high winds mean that oranges can fall off the tree.  But that just adds to the supply of FCOJ in the end as the producers will quickly gather the fallen oranges and sell them to FCOJ processors as rapidly as possible.  Before that the prices can rally but after the storm the prices can spike higher and then fail.

The season for hurricanes will end by late November and then we will look forward to the freeze season for Florida.  The higher price will give producers better selling chances but the market will also need to look for buyers both here and in the international market.  The lack of buyers anywhere has really hurt the price.  Florida Citrus Mutual showed that inventories are 25% higher than a year ago at this time.  Production is better but the demand is not and the mission of the market will soon be to find buyers for the juice.