Fundecitrus forecast on Brazil’s 2017/18 crop

The 2017/18 orange production forecast for Brazil’s São Paulo and west-southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt is 364.47 million boxes (40.8 kg), says a new report by Fundecitrus (including cooperation of Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp1).

Of this figure, 265 million boxes, or 73% of the projected crop, will come from the initial bloom, which should lead to healthy juice yields.

Bearing trees total 174.78 million and the average number of fruit per tree in as of April 2017, not considering the droppage to occur during the season, was measured at 753 fruits per tree.

The average number of fruit per tree may vary by 14 fruit more or less, which corresponds to 1.9% of the average number of fruit per tree obtained upon stripping.

Fruit droppage 

The average droppage rate is estimated at 18.5%. The forecast rate is greater than those assessed in the previous seasons and is related to a greater production volume expected for this season, which might cause an extended harvesting period, thus increasing fruit exposure to pests and diseases with potential to cause fruit droppage.

Fruit size 

The average size is estimated at 265 fruits per box of 40.8 kg. Smaller fruit are expected for this season due to the greater quantity of oranges on the trees which limit their growth potential. In addition, according to Somar Meteorologia, the expectation for the second half of 2017 is for a milder El Niño.

USDA forecast on Florida’s 2016/17 crop

The USDA’s May forecast on Florida’s current crop is up 1.00 million boxes to
68.0 million boxes. The total includes 33.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 35.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges.

The projection for frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yields is lowered to 1.41 gallons per box (42 brix).