Oranges

Global orange production for 2017/18 is forecast to tumble 6.0 million metric tons (tonnes) from the previous year to 47.8 million as unfavourable weather leads to smaller crops in Brazil and the United States. Similarly, fruit for processing is expected to fall, with orange juice production forecast down nearly 25% to 1.6 million tonnes (65 degrees brix) on the production slide in Brazil and the United States. Fresh exports are relatively unchanged while lower supplies are expected to affect processing oranges.

US production is estimated to fall 24% to 3.5 million tonnes as unfavourable weather and citrus greening disease continue to cause fruit to drop in Florida before it is ripe. Exports, consumption, and fruit for processing are all lower with the smaller crop.

Brazil’s production is forecast to fall 23% to 16.0

million tonnes as unfavourable weather resulted in poor bloom and fruit set. Fresh orange consumption is up 173,000 tonnes while oranges for processing are down 5.0 million tonnes to 11.1 million. With the drop in oranges for processing, orange juice production is forecast to fall to 1.0 million tonnes (65 degrees brix).

Production in the European Union is estimated down 5% to 6.4 million tonnes on lower area and drought conditions. Imports (which are more than triple exports) are up 10% while oranges for processing and fresh consumption are both down on lower supplies.

Egypt’s production is estimated at a record 3.2 million tonnes, up 6% from last year on higher area. Exports are up 5% to a record 1.6 million tonnes on greater exportable supplies. Egypt accounts for one-third of global orange exports.

South Africa’s production is expected to rise 8% to 1.5 million tonnes. Exports are forecast at a record 1.2 million tonnes and account for 25% of global trade. The European Union remains the top market accounting for over 40% of South African orange exports.

Production in Turkey is forecast at a record 1.9 million tonnes due to favourable weather. Exports are also at a record on greater available supplies and high demand in Iraq and Russia.

Mexico’s production is projected down slightly, which is expected to lower fruit used for processing and consumption.

Morocco’s production is forecast only slightly lower at 1.0 million tonnes on favourable weather following early season drought. Exports and consumption are also forecast relatively flat on the minimal change in exportable supplies.

China’s production is projected up 300,000 tonnes to 7.3 million as a result of favourable weather and yields. Consumption is up on higher domestic supplies and robust import demand for high- quality and counter-seasonal fruit. South Africa and Egypt are the top two suppliers, accounting for 60% of imports

Orange Juice

Global orange juice production for 2017/18 is forecast down 24% to 1.6 million tonnes (65 degrees brix) as Brazil and US production plunges on fewer oranges for processing.

Consumption, exports, and stocks are expected to fall as Brazilian and US supplies, combined, fall to near 2015/16 levels.

US production is expected down 98,000 tonnes to 205,000 as a result of fewer oranges for processing. Imports are forecast up 37% to 410,000 tonnes with Brazil and Mexico expected to supply over 90% of orange juice imports. The jump in imports offsets the drop in production, builds stocks, and tempers consumptions downward trend.

Brazil’s production is expected to tumble nearly 30% to 1.0 million tonnes on fewer oranges for processing. As the largest producer, Brazil accounts for over three-quarters of global orange juice exports, but with the drop in production, both exports and stocks are forecast down.

Production in the European Union is projected down 8% to 107,000 tonnes

reduced oranges for processing due to lower area, high temperatures, and lack of rain. Consumption continues to slide as imports are also down. Even with declining consumption, the EU still remains the top orange juice consumer.

Lemons/Limes

Global production in 2017/18 is forecast up slightly to a record 7.7 million tonnes. Higher production in Argentina and Mexico is expected to more than offsets declines in Turkey. Global exports are forecast up slightly to a new record with record trade from Mexico, Turkey, and South Africa. Fruit used for processing is up slightly.

Orange Juice: Production, Supply and Distribution in Selected Countries

(1,000 Metric Tons at 65 Degrees Brix)

For 2007/08 and after, one metric ton of 65 degrees brix equals 344.8 gallons at 42 degrees brix and 1,392.6 gallons at single strength equivalent. One metric ton of 65 degrees brix equals 344.8 gallons at 42 degrees brix and 1,405.88 gallons at single strength equivalent for 2006/2007 and earlier.

Split years refer to the harvest and marketing period, which corresponds roughly to October-September in the Northern Hemisphere.

For the Southern Hemisphere, harvest occurs almost entirely during the second year shown and the harvest and marketing period begins in the second year shown:

South Africa – February through January Australia – April through March

Brazil – July through June

Import and export totals may not equal due in part to different marketing years such as those listed above.

Note: Data based on cranberry juice commoddity code 200981 Cranberry juice, unfermented, whether or not containing added sugar or other
sweetening matter (excluding containing spirit)
Source: Fruit Juice Focus from customs data

Note: Data based on cranberry juice commoddity code 200981 Cranberry juice, unfermented, whether or not containing added sugar or other
sweetening matter (excluding containing spirit)
*2014 data from USA based on average; Source: Fruit Juice Focus from customs data

Taking three of the most traded juices on the market (orange, apple and pineapple) in both the concentrate and not from concentrate sectors, Fruit Juice Focus analyses consumption in the Russian Federation for the 12 month period October to September over the past five years (2012 to 2017).

FRUIT JUICE NOT FROM CONCENTRATE

Consumption of imported fresh orange juice in the Russian Federation is low in comparison with many other countries and what consumption there is (see table 1) has been steadily on the decline over the past five years, although levels have flattened out since October 2015. There is a notable drop of 69% when comparing the 12 month period October 2016 to September 2017 with the same period 2013/14. The majority of the countries featured in the table have shown a similar drop in exports to the Russian Federation.

Exceptions to this trend are Germany who has been a consistent exporter to the Russian Federation since the end of 2012 averaging 417 tonnes year on year and Belarus*, where the quantity of fresh orange juice has increased from the low volumes recorded four to five years ago to levels averaging 482 tonnes over the past three years.

Both Spain and Israel have gone from being two of the largest exporters five years ago to substantially less in the last 12 months with volumes recorded down by 75% and 82% respectively. The Ukraine shows a complete cessation of exports by September 2014 from being the largest exporter to the Russian Federation. This reported to be due to the political situation between the two countries.

Imports of fresh apple juice by the Russian Federation from countries worldwide are also on the decline following a similar trend to that shown in fresh orange juice above. The figures (see table 2) show that the 3809 tonnes imported in the most recent analysis is 43% down on the 6704 tonnes imported four years ago and 15% down on the year previous.

Notable in the analysis is the substantial rise in imported fresh apple juice from Belarus* up 45% for the period ending September 2017 versus the same period 12 months before and a significant leap when comparing the 1856 tonnes exported by Belarus* to the Russian Federation compared with 119 tonnes for the period 2012-2013 – up 1559%.

Poland was the largest exporter back five years ago – 776 tonnes – and is now only supplying just over half that amount at 419 tonnes occupying second place to Belarus* top spot. Germany in third place remains consistent in the annual quantities supplied with Armenia also showing consistent exports to the Russian Federation up until this past year where figures show a 13% drop against the previous period.

Fresh pineapple juice consumption (see table 3) has been very stable during the past three 12 month periods analysed averaging just over 500 tonnes per year having dropped from a high of 923 tonnes five years ago. Germany again remains a regular supplier albeit at fairly low volumes, averaging 110 tonnes over the five years recorded and maintaining second spot to Belarus* who during the past year were exporting twice as much in terms of volume than Germany. The Netherlands have entered the picture this last year with a minimal amount of 56 tonnes up from zero in the three years prior to that. Both Finland and the Philippines were showing reasonable amounts of exports to the Russian Federation four to five years ago but have dropped away in the last two years to 21 and zero tonnes respectively.

FRUIT JUICE CONCENTRATE

As would be expected the Russian Federation imports most of its orange juice concentrate from Brazil – 75% in the most recent period recorded (see table 4) where imports from Brazil stood at 25123 tonnes out of the world total of 33714 tonnes. The Netherlands in the past have been one of the larger exporters to the Russian Federation peaking at 16304 tonnes (38%) of the total consumption back in the period October 2013 to September 2014 but even then, Brazil was way ahead supplying 50% of the total. The Netherlands have since then slipped back to 2989 tonnes for the last recorded period at just 9% of the total.

Italy has shown significant growth in exports over the past two years rising from a total of 475 tonnes for the period October 2015 to September 2016 up to a total of 2637 tonnes for the most recent period October 2016 to September 2017 – representing an increase of 456%. Similarly, Spain has jumped up the ranks to 5^th place with a total of 844 tonnes supplied to the Russian Federation for the most recent period recorded – 61% up compared with the previous period.

Israel has been a consistent supplier over the past five years despite a drop of nearly 50% two years ago and sits in fourth place in the current analysis with 1389 tonnes of orange juice concentrate supplied.

Belgium has dropped from third place five years ago when it was exporting 5667 tonnes into the Russian Federation to an almost non-existent figure of 28 tonnes this past year.

Apple juice concentrate is the most popular of the three fruit juices analysed in this issue of Fruit Juice Focus with the Russian Federation consuming 84919 tonnes of apple juice concentrate compared with 33714 tonnes of orange juice concentrate consumed during the period October 2016 to September 2017. In terms of suppliers of apple juice concentrate – China is way ahead, exporting 48256 tonnes to the Russian Federation during the above period which equates to 57% of the total supplied by all the countries listed (see table 5). The Russian Federation is consuming 13% less apple juice concentrate than it was two years ago where in the period October 2015 to September 2016 figures where at a five year high of 97193 tonnes of which 61734 tonnes (64%) were imported from China.

Uzbekistan has climbed up to second place in the current exporter rankings with 11594 tonnes being shipped to the Russian Federation in the most recent period – up from their previous total of 4602 tonnes. Imports from Poland, who sit in third place, have fluctuated quite considerably in the past five years flattening out at 11551 tonnes in the most recent period – up 11% on the period before.

Belarus* has also risen up the ranks of suppliers in recent years exporting 6149 tonnes in the most recent period against a figure of just 80 tonnes five years ago.

The Ukraine – once a significant player five years ago has stopped exporting to The Russian Federation in the past three years reportedly due to the political climate.

Consumption of pineapple juice concentrate has dropped from 11862 tonnes for the period recorded five years ago to 3934 tonnes this last period analysed – a decline of 67% (see table 6). But there has been a 21% upturn this past recorded 12 months of 21% compared with the previous 12 months – albeit from a much smaller base. The Netherlands export the largest amount of pineapple juice concentrate into the Russian Federation – just over 50% – and has been the top supplier consistently during the past five years.

Table 6. Russian Federation imports of pineapple juice concentrate (tonnes)

Imports from Thailand have dropped away in recent years to just 768 tonnes compared with 3130 tonnes five years ago. Similarly, South African imports have dropped from 1524 tonnes to 515 tonnes for the same period

Source: Fruit Juice Focus from trade statistics

*Footnote: The Russian Federation’s foreign trade customs statistics exclude trade with the Republic of Belarus and the Republic of Kazakhstan.

USDA data – Brazil – Orange

The commercial area in the state of São Paulo and the western part of Minas Gerais should account for 320 million boxes (13.06 million tonnes), a decrease of 19% compared with 2016/17

Total Brazilian FCOJ production (65 brix equivalent) for 2017/18 is projected at 1.15 million tonnes, a 16% drop compared with the previous year. The São Paulo industry is expected to process 278 million boxes of oranges for orange juice production, 208 million boxes for FCOJ and 70 million boxes for NFC production, accounting for 1.052 million tonnes of juice (780 000 tonnes and 272 000 tonnes of FCOJ and NFC respectively).

Total Brazilian FCOJ exports for 2017/18 are projected at 1.137 million tonnes, a decrease of 9% on the previous year. The São Paulo industry should contribute 1.082 million tonnes.

Inventory levels for 2017/18 are projected at 60 000 tonnes (FCOJ equivalent) down 25 000 tonnes from 2016/17.

USDA stock figures only include juice in the storage tanks of the facilities (processing plants, port terminals etc…) in Brazil. They do not include stocks owned by Brazilian companies abroad, e.g., in transit and port terminals in the US, Europe and Japan.

According to the Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters (CitrusBR), global Brazilian orange juice inventories were 107 387 tonnes (66 Brix) on 30 June 2017, which includes 6 872 tonnes of orange juice in storage tanks (processing plants, port terminals, etc…) in Brazil. CitrusBr projects global orange juice inventories on 30 June 2018 at 207 565 tonnes. CitrusBr global inventories include orange juice in storage tanks at processing plants and port terminals in Brazil and stocks abroad (vessels and port facilities worldwide).

USDA data – Poland – Apple

Poland’s 2017/18 apple crop is estimated at 2.8 million tonnes, a 20% decrease from last year.

The USDA estimates that Polish processors will use 1.4 million tonnes of fresh domestically grown apples in 2017/18, a decline from 1.8 million tonnes in 2016/17. Almost 50% of domestic apples are processed, mostly into concentrated apple juice. Except for apple juice concentrate, Polish processing capacity remains relatively low.

Poland is the EU’s largest producer and exporter of apple juice and apple juice concentrate (AJC). In 2016/17, production reached 300 000 tonnes. The smaller crop in 2017/18 is expected to lead to a 27% decrease in AJC production from the previous year. Output will depend on the quality of apples on the market in the second half of 2017/18 (July to June marketing year).

The USDA forecasts that the export opportunities for Polish apple processors in 2017/18 are lower. Higher input costs will increase apple juice prices and this is coupled with strong competition from China. AJC exports in 2017/18 are expected to reach 224 000 tonnes, a 20% decline from the year before. In 2016/17 Poland exported 279 000 tonnes of AJC. The main export destinations are Germany and other EU member states. The main non-EU export markets are the US and Russia.

Exports of AJC to the US and Russia in 2017/18 are expected to decline due to strong price competition from China. In 2016/17 Poland exported 12 000 tonnes of AJC to the US and the same amount was shipped to Russia.

In recent years, Poland has imported small amounts of AJC from other countries, mostly from the Ukraine and Moldova to blend with local supplies. In 2016/17, Poland imported 54 000 tonnes of AJC. According to industry sources, imported Chinese AJC would be able to compensate for the domestic supply shortages in 2017/18.

USDA data – Europe – Orange

Total EU orange production in 2017/18 is expected to fall 7.7% to 6.2 million tonnes, of which 1.3 million will go for processing, says the USDA. Spanish orange production is predicted to fall 11% to 3.2 million tonnes.

EU orange juice production is forecast to fall 11% to 102 000 tonnes.

EU orange juice imports in 2016/17 were 682 000 tonnes, of which 90% were from Brazil.

USDA data – China – Orange

2017/18 orange production is forecast at 7.3 million tonnes, up 4% from the previous year due to favourable weather and a diminished impact from citrus greening.

Orange juice production in 2017/18 (October-September) is forecast at 43 800 tonnes, down slightly from the 2016/17 estimate of 44 500 tonnes. Industry reports that consumer demand for ‘not from concentrate’ (NFC) juice is growing and Chinese processors can now sell high-quality NFC juice at over twice the price of ‘from concentrate’ (FC) juice. Industry contacts also report that production of FC juice continues to slowly decline as consumer demand weakens. Major Chinese orange juice processors are located in Chongqing and Sichuan provinces.

Orange juice domestic consumption is forecast at 96 200 tonnes, almost unchanged from the 2016/17 estimate. The USDA has increased consumption estimates by more than 30% due to reports from retailers that while demand for FC juice remains weak, consumption of NFC juice was unexpectedly strong, especially in top-tier cities as cold-chain infrastructure, marketing efforts and disposable incomes expand.

Orange juice imports in 2017/18 are projected at 55 000 tonnes, unchanged on the previous year. Based on Chinese Customs data, 2016/17 import estimations were increased significantly due to unexpectedly strong import demand from Chinese processors opting to import ingredients for juicing as opposed to utilizing domestic oranges which have increased in price. Orange juice exports in 2017/18 are forecast at 2 600 tonnes

USDA data – South Africa – Orange

The production of oranges in the 2017/18 is forecast to increase by 2% to 1.43 million tonnes, from 1.40 million tonnes in 2016/17.

The production of orange juice is forecast to increase by 18% to 26 000 tonnes in 2017/18, from 22 000 tonnes in 2016/17. This is due to the increase in the quantity of fresh oranges delivered for processing and the higher juice extraction achieved as a result of the better quality of oranges.

The domestic consumption of orange juice is forecast to increase by 3% to 6 400 tonnes in 2017/18, from 6 200 tonnes in 2016/17, based on the increase in production and supply availability. The relatively high food price inflation has resulted in restricted growth in the domestic consumption of fresh fruit juices especially the one hundred percent fruit juice, and the shift in demand to orange juice concentrates.

Exports of orange juice in 2017/18 will increase by about 6% to 25 500 tonnes, from 24 000 tonnes in the 2016/17, based on the available supply and increase in production.

Producers in South Africa prefer to export fresh oranges rather than to sell to processors as export prices are eight times higher than prices achieved from processors. Netherlands, Botswana, Mozambique, Mauritius, Zambia and Zimbabwe are the biggest markets for South African orange juice exports.

USDA data – Australia – Orange

Production of fresh oranges is forecast at 480 000 tonnes in 2017/18, the same as the previous year, assuming average seasonal conditions.

The USDA forecasts 60 000 tonnes of fresh oranges will be processed into juice for 2017/18. Total orange juice production is forecast to remain at 7 000 tonnes in 2017/18.

In 2017, the national shortage of Navel oranges for fresh juice production led a number of processors to import orange juice concentrate for mixing with available fresh juice. Some processors used labels on juice bottles to advise consumers on the use of concentrate. In mid-2018, Australia will introduce stricter country-of-origin labelling to all products, which will make it mandatory to label fruit juice made from either local or imported juice.

Growers have traditionally entered into 3-year contracts with juice processors for juice supplies, although shorter term contracts have been more common in recent years. Lower domestic prices offered by juice processors have encouraged farmers to switch to growing more profitable varieties such as Navel oranges and mandarins; away from Valencia oranges. This trend has resulted in smaller supplies for Valencia oranges, which is now impacting juice processors. In 2017, higher international demand for Valencia oranges has further reduced supplies for processing orange juice.

Orange juice consumption has fallen over the last decade from 49 000 tonnes in 2005/06 to 41 000 tonnes in 2012/13. The USDA expects a further decrease to 38 000 tonnes for 2017/18.

Per capita annual consumption of citrus fruit has declined over the last five years due to competition from other beverages such as iced tea and sports drinks. Health concerns are also driving consumers to move away from drinks with higher sugar content and imported concentrates.

Orange and apple juice are the most popular products on the Australian juice market, but many new competitive products have been introduced such as fruit and vegetable juice combinations, organic juice varieties, cold pressed juice, coconut water, and mixtures with other beverages. Valencia oranges are harvested in winter, but are mainly consumed as juice in the summer, thus, some processors have used six various storage systems for juice, apart from freezing. Juice can be pasteurized and stored juice in 1,000-litre bladders at low temperatures to maintain juice supplies over the year.

Australia exports small quantities of orange juice – exports in 2017/18 are estimated at just 500 tonnes, which was revised down from 600 tonnes in 2016/17. Processors import orange juice and concentrate to meet overall domestic demand.

Imports of orange juice concentrate are expected to remain stable at 31 500 tonnes in 2017/18. Brazil is the main supplier of frozen orange juice concentrate (FCOJ).

USDA data – Morocco – Orange

Morocco’s orange production for 2017/18 at 935 000 tonnes, a decline of 10% over 2016/17.

Orange juice production in 2017/18 at 35,000 tonnes, 43% lower than 2016/17 due to less availability for processing.

Orange juice exports for 2017/17 are expected to be lower at 3 000 tonnes and imports are projected to be higher at 3 100 tonnes. Morocco began exporting volumes of single-strength orange juice in 2016/17 to the Netherlands and France.