While orange production is up in regions such as Brazil, Florida, South Africa, Morocco and the EU, analysts say there are minor concerns about whether the global supply of orange juice will be sufficient to meet demand in the first half of 2022.
FLORIDA – ORANGE PRODUCTION <UP>
The USDA’s final forecast on Florida’s 2020/21 orange crop is 52.8 million boxes. The total is comprised of 22.7 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties), unchanged from the June forecast, and 30.1 million boxes of Valencia oranges, up slightly from the June forecast. USDA
SOUTH AFRICA – ORANGE AND ORANGE JUICE PRODUCTION <UP>
The production of oranges in South Africa is estimated to increase by 2% to 1.65 million tonnes in 2020/21, from 1.62 million tonnes the year before. The USDA projects that 285 000 tonnes of oranges will be processed in 2020/21, against 282 000 tonnes the year before.
The production of orange juice is estimated to increase by 1% to 50 000 tonnes in 2020/21, from 49 494 tonnes in 2019/20.
Concentrated orange juice accounts for at least 90% of the total orange juice produced in South Africa. The South African citrus industry prioritizes the export of fresh citrus, and only processes the fruit that does not meet export standards.
The USDA estimates that exports of orange juice in 2020/21 will increase significantly to 40 000 tonnes, from 29 549 tonnes the year before. USDA
TURKEY – ORANGE PRODUCTION <DOWN>
In 2020/21, orange production in Turkey is estimated to decrease to 1.3 million tonnes, which is 23% lower than in 2019/20 (1.7 million tonnes), due to excessive hot weather conditions in May 2020 during the blooming period.
Volumes for processing are also projected to decline in 2020/21, but to a lesser degree, to 105 000 tonnes from 110 000 tonnes the year before. USDA
MOROCCO – ORANGE AND ORANGE JUICE PRODUCTION <UP>
Orange production in 2020/21 in Morocco is forecast at 1.10 million tonnes, against 806 000 tonnes the year before. The USDA expects the volume of oranges for processing to reach 50 000 tonnes, compared with 35 000 tonnes in 2019/20. This will equate to 5 000 tonnes of orange juice (65 brix equivalent) in 2020/21, against 3 500 tonnes the year before. USDA
CHILE – APPLE PRODUCTION <DOWN>
Commercial apple production in Chile in 2021 is expected to fall to 1.095 million tonnes 5% lower than the 1.115 million tonnes produced the previous year. USDA
NEW ZEALAND – APPLE PRODUCTION <DOWN>
Total apple production in New Zealand for 2020/21 is forecast at 543 000 tonnes, 8% lower than the year before. USDA
FLORIDA – GRAPEFRUIT PRODUCTION <STABLE>
The USDA’S forecast for Florida grapefruit production is unchanged at 4.10 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 620 000 boxes are white and 3.48 million boxes are the red varieties. USDA
SOUTH AFRICA – GRAPEFRUIT PRODUCTION <UP>
The production of grapefruit in South Africa is estimated to increase by 8% to 373 000 tonnes in 2020/21, from 344 626 tonnes the previous year.
On average, 29% of total grapefruit produced is used for processing. The USDA estimates that the volume of grapefruit delivered for processing will increase by 12% to 105 000 tonnes in 2020/21, from 94 000 tonnes the year before. Grapefruit is processed to juice and concentrate, the majority of which is exported to Europe. USDA
ARGENTINA – LEMON PRODUCTION <DOWN>
Lemon production in 2021 in Argentina is forecast at 1.15 million tonnes, against 1.49 million tonnes in 2020. The same report projected the volume of lemons for processing at 831 000 tonnes, compared with 1.08 million tonnes the year before. USDA
EU – LEMON PRODUCTION <UP>
EU lemon production in 2020/21 is forecast to increase by almost 12% on the previous year to 1.6 million tonnes. USDA
TURKEY – LEMON PRODUCTION <UP>
In 2020/21, lemon production in Turkey reached 1.1 million tonnes, which is 13% higher than during the 2019/20 season (950 000 tonnes). Lemons earmarked for the processing industry in 2020/21 are expected to remain unchanged on the previous year at 50 000 tonnes. USDA
CHILE – GRAPE PRODUCTION <DOWN>
Commercial grape production in Chile in 2020/21 is expected to decrease to 615 000 tonnes, 21% lower than the 780 000 tonnes produced the previous year. USDA
CHINA – PEACH, NECTARINE AND CHERRY PRODUCTION <UP>
China’s peach and nectarine production is estimated at 16 million tonnes in 2021 (Jan-Dec), an increase of nearly 7% from the previous year.
Cherry production is forecast at 600 000 tonnes in 2021/22 (Apr 2021-Mar 2022), an increase of 15% from 2020/21. USDA